[gumpzilla]

This seems to be pretty much a pure math problem, but I haven't really seen anybody attempt much math.

I made some assumptions:

1) Pessimistically, I assumed that our EV if we fold is $9900 - 90% to make the money, and when we do make the money, we make $11000, no more.

2) I assumed a tight calling range for 8 players (I'm guessing) at the table of JJ-AA, AK. TT and AQ are reasonable to include as well and would help JJ out a reasonable amount, but it also means you get called more. With the hands I looked at, and assuming 8 players to act with identical calling ranges, you're getting called ~20% of the time.

3) Winning the blinds shouldn't really help you all that much. We'll say your equity is now 11000 in that scenario.

4) Because the payout structure climbs very, very slowly at this point, winning the hand doesn't help you that much. Assuming you still have a sub-par stack, most of the time you're going to finish getting 14000 or less. This is the part that's hardest to quantify, and I would love to see some better effort here. I assumed equity if you win a push to be about 16000. I doubt that your equity comes very close to doubling at all. Against the ranges I specified, JJ has an equity of about 36%, which I use to approximate likelihood of winning.

Given all of those assumptions, it is very, very close to EV neutral as to whether you push or fold. However, as I mentioned, I intentionally lowballed the equity of folding (this also means that I lowballed the equity of just stealing the blinds, but it's obvious that you can't really gain that much from that.) So I think it's a close decision, but likely a fold. It certainly doesn't seem like a huge missed profit opportunity to me.