Re: Very Familiar
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Let's say that we think we'll get a free card here about 85% of the time with a 3 bet. I think that's conservative.
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I think a conservative estimate would've been around 50% of the time.
Even when you do get a free card and then hit by the river - you're still going to need to recoup bets with both aggressors on your immediate right. I think you're not going to get the return when you make it there on the river and UTG+1 leads the river and you either raise and hope to get 1 extra BB from him or call to try and get 2BBs (maybe 3) on overcalls.
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