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Old 11-23-2005, 12:37 PM
MarkGritter MarkGritter is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Eagan, MN
Posts: 244
Default Re: Padookie Math Thread

Here's some calculations I did in an earlier thread about drawing one to 876 or better. (One draw only.)

There are 560 distinct ways to make a badugi. (56 starting hands, 10 outs for each.) The median of the resulting badugis is 932A.

The median jack-or-better badugi under these conditions is somewhere in the 87's. (The median 9 or better is somewhere in the 85's, not shown below.)

I think this really illustrates the power of drawing smoothly (and I try to draw much smoother than 876 in the half-pot game.) Anybody drawing to a T is worse than more than half of the badugis made by a player drawing to an 8.

Spreadsheet explanation:

Left hand column lists all possible drawing hands. Each finishing hand (top two cards only) are shown along the top. The intersecting cell contains the number of outs for the drawing hand, assuming he isn't breaking a badugi.

At the bottom we total the number of ways to make each finishing hand, and keep a cumulative total so that we can eyeball where the median is.

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