[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just think you're probably underestimating the amount of times somebody will bet this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Make the Queen an Ace and I agree. Here, I don't see how someone in EP will bet the flop. If anything, it will be an LP bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, here's the scenarios with the probability I think they happen in brackets

1. we bet and get 1-2 callers (75%)
2. we bet and win right out (5%)
3. we bet and get isolated(5%)
4. we bet and get 3 callers(15%)

so, when we bet we make
1. (.75*1.5SB*.35) + (.75*-1SB*.65) + (.75*5.5SB*.35) =
2. (.05*5.5SB)
3. (.05*2SB*.35) + (.05*-2SB*.65) + (.05*5.5SB*.35)
4. (.15*3SB*.35) + (.15*-1SB*.65) + (.15*5.5SB*.35)

1+2+3+4 = 1.86 SB

5. we check and it gets checked through (25%)
6. we check and EP bets (10%)
7. we check and LP bets (65%)

so, if we check:

5. (.65*5.5SB*.35)
6. (.1*2.75SB*.35) + (.1*-1.3SB*.65) + (.1*5.5SB*.35)
7. (.65*2.5SB*.35) + (.65*-1SB*.65) + (.65*5.5SB*.35)
* for 6 I used 2.75 SB, because I figure it will go bet,call,call abit more than 1/3 of the time there's an EP bet, allowing us to c/r. This was also why I use -1.3SB in the second term.

5+6+7 = 2.09 SB

So, we see that checking yields a higher EV.

potential shortcomings:
1)assumed percentages incorrect
2)future betting not considered
3)we may win the pot on the turn if it's HU
4)I think 35% is too high for our equity. That's how often we hit the flush, but not how often we win. (I think that this balances 3 pretty well).

I encourage others to add some more math to the problem if they see fit.