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Old 11-23-2005, 11:32 AM
SlantNGo SlantNGo is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 133
Default Re: Big draw OOP against a possible steal

First of all, let's get on the same page as to what the typical 1/2 9-max player is calling with here. He would call with IMO:

Any 7, Any 5, Any Q with J or lower kicker, Any Ace, Any gutshot, Any obvious stuff I excluded (like the flush draw)

He is raising with:

Any Q with K or higher kicker, 2-pair or higher

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IMO you are just as likely to have 1 raiser, as 1 caller.
With one caller, your flop bet was negative EV.
As for the turn, you are now making another neutral to negative EV bet to 'try' to take down this pot. I know people make loose flop calls, but what do you expect villian to call the flop with?

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No, in this case it becomes a semi-bluff. It also depends where the call comes from. If it goes Bet, Call, 3 folds, then maybe firing again on the turn isn't the best idea. If it goes Bet, 2 or 3 folds, a loose opponent holding Ace high here is more likely to call here then fold the turn UI


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If I get 3 callers, it was a good value bet. Great.


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But could you have got more value?

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Who's going to bet the flop for us? If anyone, it's someone from late position, but with loose-passive opponents, this gets checked through a lot of the time when you could have gotten 3 callers.

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1. When OOP, there is no other place from which a bet can come, other than on your left.

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If the bet comes from LP, I consider it on my right, because I can't raise for value without risking to knock others out.

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2. I don't care where the freakin' bet comes from, as long as it has one or more callers before it gets back to me.

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If the bet comes from LP, why would it have callers before it gets to you? That's only the case if the bet is from EP, which is unlikely unless I have a read that an EP player is aggressive.

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All I wanted to say with any of my posts is:

In this particular situation, on this particular flop, with this many villians, completely OOP, with a less than nut flush, with no overcards to the flop, in an unraised pot - I don't bet out.


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With loose opponents I believe this is a mistake. A read that they're not as loose as typical 1/2 9-max opponents or that any one of them is aggressive could very well change my answer. Your fear of this flop being raised is unjustified IMO. I think it gets raised <5% here vs. typical opponents.
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