This is from an old thread. Can anybody come up with the equation used to find the EV for calling/raising, using the weighed percentages he came up with? Im obviously doing the math wrong because I come up with different figures. Help.
LINK TO ORGINAL THREAD (its one of GoTs posts that are in question.)
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Preflop:
MP limps, Hero raises in the CO w/ A K. Button calls cold, SB 3-bets, MP calls, Hero caps, everyone calls.
Flop: (13 SBs) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 Players)
Checked to Hero who bets, button calls, SB raises, MP folds. Hero 3-bets, button calls, SB calls.
Turn: (11 BBs) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets, button folds, SB calls.
River: (13 BBs) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets out...
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Okay, I decided to try and find the point where calling is better than raising. Here's an extremely unrealistic handset, tipped way in my opponents favor:
I'm ahead and he won't call a raise : 0%
I'm ahead and he will call a raise : 0%
I'm behind and he won't call a raise : 0%
I'm behind and he will call/reraise a raise : 80%
I'm chopping and he won't call a raise : 15%
I'm chopping and he will call a raise : 5%
EV of folding : +0.00 BB's
EV of calling : +0.70 BB's
EV of raising : +0.85 BB's
This is obviously weighted hugely in his advantage, beyond the point of reasonability for this hand. He never has a hand that beats mine, he has AA or KQo with the heart or QQ with the heart 80% of the time, calls my raise with AK 25% of the time he has it and bets it (which indicates he's ready to fold it), yet raising is still the preferred play.
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