Re: AKo -- how ridiculous is this?
ABC being call?
(Re: flop, whenever I bet these, I get donked on the turn, I don't think you get a free river as much as people think you do.)
On the river, I see it as this -
a. UTG+2 probably has air, but may have AK or KQ -- but he is very unlikely to have a had that beats Hero's.
b. If he has air, he's not calling 1 bet or 2.
c. He is unlikely to 3-bet a raise.
So, if we call, we get the MP's bet on the river MOST of the time, and an additional bet from UTG+2's KQ some of the time. We only get more if UTG+2 has KQ and raises. (Hero nets less than a bet when UTG raises AK for the chop)
If we raise, we get >1 bet from MP2 as he'll be closing the action if UTG calls (so he's more likely to call the 2nd bet). We also get 2 bets from UTG+2 some of the time with KQ. As stated, I think we're unlikely to get 3-bet by UTG+2.
I'm not sure how I can better explain my thoughts.
-d
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