Re: AKo -- how ridiculous is this?
Betting the flop can get us a free card on the turn a relatively high percentage of the time here, I think, and if a check-raise is in the offing we can fold the turn UI or even fold to the checkraise with few worries. There are good reasons to bet here beyond simple equity edge.
I have a great deal of trouble understanding your river analysis. I think this an interesting, sophisticated play, but I don't see any reason to suspect that your parlay of UTG checkraising with hand that can't beat TPTK + MP2 might call two with worse hand + MP2 might fold a better hand is any good, compared to closing the action and going for the overcall. Given OP's ignorance re: his opponents, I prefer the ABC play.
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