[DcifrThs]

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Why is it a clear fold on the river but not on the turn?

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you have outs.

you may get a free showdown.

you may still have the best hand.

the pot is sizable/decently sized. (can't remember # players but around 10bbs)

EDIT: 7.5:1 to call the turn closing the action. if behind AND have 100% of 5 outs you need about 8.5:1 to call. if ahead then clearly you should raise getting/laying 3.75:1 for yourself. if you believe tha probability you are ahead + the probability you wont have to call a bet on the river is large enough compared to the probability you are behind and drawing to 2 outs + the probability you'r behind drawing to 5 outs + the probability that you have to call a river bet, then you should raise the turn. if you think the first two probabilities are relatively small, then you should do what you did, which is call/fold.

stox said why not fold turn. this imo is the powe of position and action closing. if the action went bb check utg bet Paluka raised bb cold called the flop, THEN the ace fell on the turn and bb checked againa nd UTG bet then a fold is prudent b/c the bb called 2 cold on the flop w/ no real draw out there and UTG fired again when the ace hit.

but here, paluka is getting 7.5:1 on an optimistic 8.5:1 shot or 3.75:1 for a raise. with implied odds id say this is a call even if those implied odds have to be played passively. further, i think the turn play is close given that he coudl be drawing to 2 outs and pay reverse implied odds for the draw. id lean towards a fold vs. "decent" players, but against 2 unknowns with no reads at all ive never seen id lean towards a FCR {0,50,50}. further, the bb would be (imo and i could be wrong) more likely to bet into a field here w/ top pair weak kicker vs. A7 or Awhatever-the-other-rag-was despite combinatoric evidence to the contrary.

NOTE on eric's method: given that they are unknown and given that this is the EXACT situation id face in a simulation infinite times then that triple is what id go with. NOW, if i was given that situation after the information of my previous actions are known, FCR{0,50,50} is very exploitable.

Barron