[theordinaryboy]

There are two key parts in my original post which nobody has pointed out yet.

The first is the tournament structure:

[ QUOTE ]
5 Left, 4 qualify and get $275.27.5 buy-in 5th gets level 2 buy-in and gets $25+2.5 buy-in

[/ QUOTE ]

This is extremely important as anyone who plays satelites should know. 1st place = 4th place, therefore bubble aggression to come 1st, like that this forum advises for normal sng's should not be applied (well thats not entirely true, but the normal style of play should be altered).

Everyone should know the "is it correct to fold AA pre-flop argument" i think either hoh 1 or 2 or sklansky's TPFAP had a section where in a satellite you can fold AA pre-flop, well in satellite/steps/rounders if there is only one more person needed to go out and there is a small stack, then folding golden opportunities can sometimes be strangely correct.

This covers the second key part i talked about at the beginning of this post.

[ QUOTE ]
Player 1 = 7800
Villain = 4000
Player 2 = 600
Player 3 = 1000
Hero = 1600

[/ QUOTE ]

In this example there is a small stack (player 2 with 600) and a semi-small stack as well (player 3 with 1000).

Ok, lets go back to the original post and do a bit of hand analysis.

What do we believe villain has, these parameters are very rough so feel free to argue the values i have given.

Ace high flush 5% (a tad generous perhaps)
A Set 15%
An A High flush draw 40%
Top pair 40%

Now the "top pair 40%" may seem high however this player had been re-raising players knowing that with the small stack out there they must have a very good hand to call, now the question is, is a flopped king high flush a good enough hand?

Villain has Flopped nut flush, Hero wins 0% x 5 = 0
Villain has Set, hero wins 65.6% x 15 = 9.84
Villain has A high Flush draw, hero wins 71% x 40 = 28.4
Villain has top pair, hero wins 97.2% x 40 = 38.88

Villain wins hand = 0 + 9.84 + 28.4 + 38.88 = 77.12%

Thats a pretty high % really, now just because we win the hand does not necessarily mean we will still qualify, we must have all seen small stacks recover from nothing, however we will win the majority of the time, so if we say we qualify to the next round 75% of the time we win this hand.

Can we still fold a 75% chance to qualify to the next round?

Probably not, however, i really don't think it would be a terrible play or even the worst play.

Small stack has to double up, this means that he is likely to go all-in and risk his tournament life.

If we give the chance of small stack going out before us if we fold everyhand and he goes all-in against someon else as 50%.

This means we have a 50% of winning simply by folding every hand.

If small stack does win then he will double up to between 1000-1600

this leaves us with 3 small stacks:

the old semi-stack (player 3) on 1000 odd
hero on 1200 odd
and the old small stack on 1000-1600

now very simply if we say that the chance of each player busting out is 1 in 3 (this is very simply and perhaps a flaw in my argument but i do not know how to calculate it better)

That means that hero has a 66% of qualifing even if the small stack does double up.

If we add these values up then

Hero wins by small stack busting 50%
Hero wins after small stack doubles up 66% x 0.5 = 33%

50% + 33% = 83%

Hero calls flopped king high flush = 75%
Hero folds flopped king high flush = 83%

I am not saying that it is correct to fold in this situation, just that i do not believe that folding is too bad either.

Anyway, discuss, also what do people believe now?