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Old 11-21-2005, 06:56 PM
poincaraux poincaraux is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
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Default Re: AJs, flop top pair + flush draw,.25/.50 NL, big pot

NOTE: I'm very much a newbie. Someone please correct me if I'm way off here.

I don't see how lautzutao can be terribly wrong here. Bad guy limp-re-raised. In my (very limited) experience, that's AA,KK most of the time. Does he really have 77 here? Again, in my experience, people who limp-re-raise with AA,KK often get married to their hand on flops like this. If you push and he calls, you've both put in 80, and the pot ends up at 188.95, so you've just put in 42% of the pot. If you give him overpairs and monsters to call with,

Board: 5h 7h Jc
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.7548 % 42.75% 00.00% { AhJh }
Hand 2: 57.2452 % 57.25% 00.00% { AA-JJ, 77, 55 }

Taking QQo out of the mix brings it down to 60:40 and adding AcKc back in (I cheated and looked at the results) makes it 43:57 again.

There are some other advantages of pushing, too: you don't want to give him any sort of interesting odds on the flop, so I'd probably pot it back at him. Re-potting it would be most of your stack, though, so you're might as well stick the rest in for fold equity, no? Also, if he calls with AA, you'll conveniently be getting exactly the correct odds on your push with the added advantage that he'll think you're a total nutcase and call you down a lot more in the future. If he folds something reasonable, you still get that advantage since the short stack is all-in.

I'm quite the newbie, though .. someone please correct me if I'm way off.

NOTE: I could easily be off by a few percent since the short stack is stealing some of your equity .. I don't think they're stealing a lot of it, though.
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