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Old 11-21-2005, 06:41 PM
Dominic Dominic is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 611
Default Re: 2-5 at the Palms

[ QUOTE ]
With the PF action, I think it's pretty tough to put anybody on Aces full.

Button raiser really popping it with A4-A6? Would he do it if they were offsuit? SB really calling that raise with A4-A6? Offsuit? AA - 1 combo.

Looks like about 7 combos of these hands, if they will only play them suited. If they're playing any A... this goes up by quite a bit, but so does the possibliity that they have just trips.

Other possible hands:
44, 55 - 6 combos.
Ax - Non boat. Buttloads of combos
78s 4 combos. (again, more if they'll play it offsuit)
23s ? - It's pretty damn unlikely... lets just ignore it.

So... on the river:
There's 80 + 200 + 900 + 500 = $1680 in the pot, and it costs you another $700 to call.

If you beat the button, there's another $400 to win in the sidepot, regardless of whether you get the main pot.

Based on hand distributions alone, it looks like a pretty easy call....

The tricky part, though, is which of the hands listed above would they play like this?

Any way button raiser checks behind with a non-full A on the flop? 44? Would he continuation bet his 55?

The fact that you describe him as "tricky" makes me think that the chance of him checking behind AK-AJ here would be much higher, but could he really check twice with these hands??

As for the SB, would he really check twice with a hand that beats yours??

After bet and a raise on the river, button has to have balls of iron to make a bluff here... so that doesn't seem too likely. Any chance he would think his craptasticly played AK would be good enough to push with here?

The only logical hands I can put them on are SB-78s and Button - AA.

If these guys have been making some wacky plays, or slowplaying a lot, that probably pushes it to a call... but since you say these guys are LAG, I think it's a fold.

Edit: Man those pot odds sure are juicy though.....

[/ QUOTE ]

great work! thanks for the detailed analysis. I have to get in the habit of breaking down the possibilities like this in the middle of a hand. When a pot gets big like this and raises and pushes are going crazy, I tend to call/fold/raise based on emotion and not what the hand is telling me.
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