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Old 11-21-2005, 06:10 PM
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Default Re: Call For Stats (K9o, Q9o, J9o, T9o)

The scope of this survey is to obtain the TOTAL winrate of each of these hands; that is, including the blinds.

I'd like to clarify something that some may not be aware of or realize fully.

If you never ever played a hand, even folding it in the big blind when there's no raise, your expectation with that hand would be what you lost with it in the blinds, divided by the total number positions in the game (eventually you would receive it roughly an equal amount in each position):

(assume 10-20 blind structure)
EV = -0.75bb/AVG_NUM_PLAYERS

If you strive to play in relatively full 6-Max games, AVG_NUM_PLAYERS is going to be somewhere around 5.5.

This means the EV of a hand you always fold will be -0.75/5.5, or about -.14bb/hand.

Now, even hands like 72o and 32o do quite a bit better than this, since once in a while you get a free play in the big blind, and you get a flop that gives you positive EV. The result of this is that even hands for which you may have a VPIP of 0 (you never voluntarily play them pre-flop, like maybe 72o) will do better than -.14bb/hand. From looking at empirical data, it looks like this "Loss Floor" is around -.12bb/hand. If you play primarily 3-handed or heads up, the loss floor will be substantially higher, but -.12bb/hand is in the ballpark if you play mostly full 6-max games.

The better the quality of the starting hand, the more positive EV situations it will encounter when it sees a flop. So we would expect a hand like 92o to have a slightly better EV than 72o, even though we may NEVER volutnarily play either hand. This slight increase in EV is due solely to the increase in playable situations post-flop when we get free plays in the big blind.

As we continue going to better and better hands, we will reach hands that have other playable situations pre-flop in addition to seeing more postive EV flops when getting a free play in the big blind. A hand like J7o, for instance, is almost certainly defendable agaisnt a typical SB raise if we're in the BB. So we would expect the EV of J7o to be higher than that of 72o. However, that does NOT mean that it will have a positive overall EV. It will be positive with respect to the loss floor, but not positive overall.

For a hand to actually break even overall; that is, to have an EV of 0, it would actually have to make about .12bb/hand over what you would lose if you always folded it. To do this, a hand needs to be playable outside the blinds. Hands that are playable UTG will all show a positive winrate. Hands that you fold in the CO but play for a steal on the button probably will not. The four hands that I have asked for stats on are examples of offsuit hands that should be relatively close to making up all of the -0.12bb/hand loss floor. Other offsuit hands that will be close are A7o - A2o. I will probably ask for those next. The reason I am focusing on offsuit hands is that they occur twice as often as pairs and three times as often as suited hands, so it is much easier to obtain a statistically significant sample of them.

Once we have a documented average winrate for some of these hands, you can then look at your own results and compare them. Are you missing profitable pre-flop situations with them? Do you play them in a different manner than most people? Or maybe you're just running bad, or great, with them.
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