Re: An Odd Flop Situation With KTs
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On the flop, I don't see a lot of value in a 3-bet. The TAG will never fold a better hand (would he fold KJ to a check/3-bet? I doubt it), and any hand he does fold has at most 3 outs against you (Ax). Flops don't get any dryer than this; no reasonable draws exist. If you cold-call, TAG will be getting 11:1 to call -- not enough for a 3-outer.
So is BB check-raising with a weak K? Possibly. I'd cold-call here. If TAG 3-bets, then you're in big trouble, as he wouldn't do it with QQ/JJ, so you're dominated by AK/AA/KQ almost all the time. Pray he has AA and turn a K or T. If TAG just calls, then raise a non-Broadway turn. If BB keeps going after you, dump it. If he calls (and TAG will fold unless he's beating you), then take a free showdown.
That's my line, anyway. I'm sure everyone will hate it.
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This is roughly what I was thinking.
Check-three-betting this flop probably over-represents your hand, but not enough to get the preflop raiser to fold a better hand. And allowing him the opportunity to act on being checkraised tells you quite a bit about his hand, I think, at least relative to yours.
-McGee
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