View Single Post
  #24  
Old 11-21-2005, 03:26 PM
Gramps Gramps is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Oaktown
Posts: 124
Default Re: Mini Step 5 Bubble: AKs facing an all-in

In a normal SNG, you're putting 20% of the prize pool at risk going to war here on the bubble. In a mini-Step 5, you're putting 5% of the prize pool at risk going to war here. Often times you can avoid confrontation in these MS5's until you're in the top-5, and there's definite value in that, but the reward is too great to justify passing up the risk here. Given the fact that AKs is likely > 60% vs. MP's range, and given that if you win, you have two very SS's, another at 1090, and you and CO at ~1600 tied for 2nd, in this (top-2 heavy) payout structure, folding here would be a big mistake IMO.

BTW, it's a bit of an odd raise for someone with 9 BB (can be done to trap an aggressive big stack into coming over the top, can be done to get away (with some chips left) from a big stack coming over the top with the SS UTG), but it seems like there's a number of players that do this more frequently nowadays. Taking note of players' raising habits in these spots, and what it's likely to mean (or not mean) in regards to their likely range of hands can be very useful information in spots like this (I guess that's obvious).
Reply With Quote