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Old 11-21-2005, 12:07 PM
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Default Re: Dodging a check-raise?

UTG+1 could be on virtually anything, but there's certainly no reason to assume that he has a Q; as for UTG+2, a lot of the hands with a Q that he gets, he's raising pre-flop (AQ, KQ) or dumping (Qx). Given this guy's pre-flop stats, it appears that you're putting him on the narrow range of QJs or QTs, and maybe Q9s or Q8s given that he's a little loose. Overpairs also get raised here PF, I would imagine.

I guess what I'm saying is that I see now reason to assume that the Q is out there, or that we're not likely to be ahead. Your opponents know that there's less of a chance anyone connected with a QQ5 board, and perhaps figure you for a standard continuation bet with an A, or a weaker PP. They're probably just hoping to improve, not trap you. Also, two hearts are out there, so between that and the Ks and As that can beat us, I hate giving a free card here. We were fortunate to see that friendly 9, but we may not be so fortunate on the river. The risk of a CR is one we have to take. Bet.
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