[scotty34]

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hmmm... well put yourself in BB's position - you call an UTG raise from a solid (hah) player with xx, you checkraise a pretty raggedy flop with 2 clubs and he calls, a brick hits the turn and he raises you

what range of xx could you have that you are going to call this raise with? a flush draw would be obvious, but I can't think of too much else.


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53s, Q5s or Q3s if he is a moron, QJ, KQ, QT.

A lot of guys, with a lot of hands, won't fire again on the river, so you really need to pop the turn.

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So basically the lone Q out there (which isn't a club, so he doesn't have Qxs) and other trash that at least I would not call in the BB from a solid UTG raise.

I don't know the math, but my first intuition says he needs to call the raise at least 50% of the time for that to be profitable as opposed to calling and hoping he fires again on the river where you raise. I'll do the math tomorrow, unless anyone can easily point out what the number is.

I'm not convinced he calls this over 50% of the time. Please do some more convincing.