Re: 20/40 Live hand I played
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I think this is wrong; even if he's up against a set, he has 13 outs, which is ~ 2.5 to 1
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you're right cero, the 3:1 was a brainfart by me. esp since he could have up to 15 outs, which would make him way better than 3:1.
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Now there's a line I can live with, especially since a good reader can presumably differentiate between a pair and a set betting 1200 on that relatively dry board. If Jeremy had even 300 less, though, I'd say he was too shallow to try c/r'ing him off AQ.
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yeah, i think a line like this, c/r-pushing the turn after a big pf raise and flop bet, is often AA/KK, and so it's a good way to represent AA/KK. jeremy would still be deep enough after a turn bet that it would be pretty tough for him to call w/o a set.
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