Re: Hating my Jacks
[ QUOTE ]
After he caps the flop, I agree he almost always has those hands, but you don't think he raises the flop with AK often enough? I figure we have layover from CO, so that even if we arn't ahead of UTG all the time, we are ahead of CO enough of the time. Maybe thats me being too much of a LAG though...
On the other hand, even if he might have AK, the times he doesn't, we usually get capped and are pretty far behind.
[/ QUOTE ]
It has been my experience that people who raise around 4% of their hands pre-flop usually don't cap anything but QQ,KK,AA because AK is a "drawing hand" to them. So I think you should discount the number of combinations of AK that could be capping you.
Also, the CO called 2 cold on the flop. I think he is actually hurting your equity, instead of providing overlay. His action there points to a flush draw, or a 4. Ofcourse he could be playing stupid and drawing to overcards, or some other PP. But here's some number crunching for you:
33,660 games 0.005 secs 6,732,000 games/sec
Board: 2c 4c 4d
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 39.5781 % 39.58% 00.00% { JcJd }
Hand 2: 60.4219 % 60.42% 00.00% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
So here we have the best case scenario where he caps AK always. You have 39% equity. Assuming that the CO is drawing completely dead (and thus not on the chart), that gives you a 6% edge to push. However I am pretty sure we can agree that the CO is either drawing quite live or is already ahead.
That is why I don't 3-bet the flop.
|