[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]



[ QUOTE ]

So, from now on, please consider answers in the form

{fold, call, raise}

to be valid.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think this implies a level of precision that just doesn't exist, at least not for most players. I'd rather see someone respond:

"You are almost never good here, I would fold. The pot would have to twice as big for me even to consider calling."

Or

"I'd call. If the pot was smaller, say 7BB, it's a fold, but I think you will be good more than the 13:1 you are getting".

etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi AceHigh,

Your statement is clearly true, right now. Does that mean that, with the great poker talent and minds available on this board, we cannot change this?

I'd speculate that few players have ever spent much time thinking about this, and there's very little written in the literature. It's not surprising that we have no feel for the numbers. We have to start thinking and playing this way and getting experience and refining and playing and thinking... just like when we were working on the simple fold or call or raise model that has served us so well to this point.

Time to take the next step. We'll have stupidly broad ranges in the beginning. It won't be easy. That doesn't mean we shouldn't try.

By the way, the painfully bad (IMO) and hand waving analysis of DERB's play would be helped immensely by discussions like this. I happen to believe we're going to find that mixed strategies against good players are going to involve 3-betting some medium pairs on the turn, to try to exploit their tendency to fold to raises... Or, perhaps better, because they don't have the leak of never folding to raises, we have to stop leaking by never semi-bluff 3-betting. Or, perhaps, because they fold to raises too much, we must semi-bluff 3-bet more... or... well, what is it? How often should you muck AK unimproved to a turn donk bet? How often should you call? Raise? And how often DO you do it?


-Eric