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Old 11-19-2005, 02:50 PM
Aaron W. Aaron W. is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 87
Default Re: Coldcalling third in Stud8

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I actually think that this would make a good topic for a magazine article. I have some time over the holiday weekend, so maybe I'll write one. If it gets published, I'll buy you a beer. Unless you're underage. Then I'll buy you a case. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I won't hold you to this [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. I just want to learn stud8.

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Generally speaking, hands that play well multi-way also depend heavily on implied odds. This includes suited connectors in hold'em, low draws in stud/8, and three-card flushes in stud. If you face two bets cold in hold'em, your implied odds are pretty well shot. If you face a full bet rather than a partial bet in stud, your implied odds are still cut, but they're frequently good enough to take a card off.

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I did have some thoughts that went along this line regarding implied odds. In hold'em, if you're facing a raise, the betting on the next street is smaller than the raise you have to call. Whereas in stud, the full bring-in is still the same size as betting on the next street. Also, hold'em has fewer streets to bet than stud, which drives down implied odds even further because you just don't have as many chances to collect.

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In hold'em, the community-card nature of the game means that you are often dominated... In stud games, the hands are independent. If the other guy has a big pair and you have a smaller pair, you can outrun him more easily.

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This makes sense. I think that I had started to equate things like "drawing to a second place low on third" with "being dominated", but that doesn't really seem to be true. If he bricks on 4th and I don't, I suddenly jump from being behind to being ahead. I don't have any intuition on how much of a jump that is, so I ran a couple twodimes simulations.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1355282
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 6h 5d 2d - 5s 3h ac
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
5d 2d 6h 143265 238980 260770 250 168325 58100 1011 0.473
5s Ac 3h 170074 260770 238980 250 184829 41497 1011 0.527

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1355284
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 6h 5d 2d 8h - 5s 3h ac ts
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
5d 2d 8h 6h 176039 245709 254238 53 270146 76211 345 0.570
Ts 5s Ac 3h 106248 254238 245709 53 120913 21325 345 0.430

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1355292
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s8 6h 5d 2d 7h - 5s 3h ac 8s
7-card Stud Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
5d 2d 7h 6h 134590 239586 260329 85 252632 77233 347 0.517
8s 5s Ac 3h 117718 260329 239586 85 189486 140272 347 0.483

That's a fairly big shift for one card, especially looking at the low-win numbers (which are highlighted). Even if hits a low card, but it forces him to be drawing to a worse low than me, I still get a large shift in my favor.

This also very clearly illustrates to me why getting out on 4th is so important if the other guy draws a good card and I don't.

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Think about why cold-calling is bad in hold'em. A lot of them aren't as applicable to stud games.

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Heh. I was working the opposite direction. When is cold-calling good in hold'em? Which of those apply to stud games? Since there aren't many good reasons to cold-call in hold'em, I wasn't able to get very far.
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