Re: ATs against a LAG
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Hi JJNJustin,
Fantastic analysis. Very well thought out. I think the preflop 3-bet is closer than you are giving credit, but your thoughts on the river 3-bet are great. I agree that this is too aggressive.
I'm a little more inclined than you to value bet the T though. The OP's "history of aggression" with the villain may well have the villain calling down here with only ace high, any 9 or a lower pocket pair.
good luck.
eric
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Eric,
I'd be curious what you think his full range is here on the river for the checkraise. Just from general observations and trying to remember what a 31/16/2.1 player plays like (that seems passive to me now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]), I think his river c/r range is something like the following:
JJ,99-88,66,ATs-A9s,KTs-K9s,QTs,ATo. These are all reasonable I think given his PFR range, though K9s might be pushing it. Jason didn't mention whether he's folding to a 4-bet or if he's capable of it, but I think we've got value for a 3-bet here if we can feel ok folding to a 4-bet, and we don't have enough value otherwise. Even if I include A7s and 87s into his UTG raising range, we're still ahead > 55%. If we're up against someone who caps indiscriminately on the river here, I don't like it though.
Rob
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