[Mark1808]

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its unlikely that AQ makes a flush when JJ hits a set because AQ is not continuing from the flop onwards unless if AQ pairs on the flop, which is mason's original assertion.

I maintain that JJ is not putting in another cent after his flop bet is called on a flop with an overcard as JJ has to put his opponent on a hand that called the flop to pure bluff a later street and that just doesn't happen often enough.

basically, if you assign additional EV to AQ the times that it flops a pair on possible called turn and river bets, then you have to assign additional EV to JJ for times that AQ bets 2nd bets in to JJ (which has not been accounted for).

if we ignore all further turn and river bets, then the numbers are in JJ's favor. If we believe that JJ pays off a turn or river bet when AQ flops a pair, then we must believe that AQ gives up additional value when JJ hits a set.

I think at this point you should accept that AQ is inferior to JJ. There is a reason mason has not posted on this anymore.

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If AQ has a 0% probability of getting anymore money out of JJ on the turn or river after Ace or Q flops and no J, (no J turn and river too) then you are 100% correct and I agree JJ would have a higher EV.