[Spicymoose]

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It's waaaaaaay better to bet the turn than try to checkraise it. I think if he just calls the turn you can checkraise almost any river, and with this particular one it's a super good checkraise to make.

Betting the turn is better than checking it because he might check behind, or he might let you bet-3bet it. After the PF and flop action it's obvious UTG has an overpair, so if he only calls the turn I feel very confident a river c/r will work with any card but an ace, so that means you're missing no value by not trying to c/r the turn, while still giving yourself the possibility of gaining more bets (via turn bet3bet). Plus if he has QJ there (almost 0% but mb the guy was a maniac and you have forgotten) the way you've played the turn and river still maximizes against that hand (checking rvr allows him to bluff at it).

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You say he almost always has a PP, but that he might check the turn? I don't think so. The bet-3bet is a good thing to bring up, but I would imagine that he does this only 25% of the time with JJ and QQ, and maybe 50% of the time with KK, and 70% of the time with AA. If he just calls your turn bet, you say you will almost always make it up by check raising the river, but I don't think this is always the case. There are 12 combos of AT he could have that may chicken out and check, there are a few JJ or QQ that might chicken out also. I agree that most of the time a river check raise works, but I think there are times when betting the turn and checking the river might only get us 1 BB. Then again, there are the times it gets us 4 BB when we can 3-bet.

Check raising the turn, on the other hand, gets us a solid 3 BB almost always.

I don't think this is as easy as you make it sound.