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Old 11-19-2005, 05:12 AM
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Default Re: Play a Foxwoods hand with me

This is a great hand to analyze. I doubt I’d play it the same way every time.

Preflop: I love the call preflop. Seven players and I’m hoping to take down a monster pot. I seriously hate a raise here OOP. I’d call pretty much every time here.

Flop: I don’t like the board, especially given all those limpers, most of whom certainly have something other than an ace and I don’t wanna play guessing games OOP whether someone has a str8 draw or a set. I check and am looking for a good excuse to fold, such as 1) a bet and a raise 2) pot sized bet from any position—early position bet is probably strong and a late position bet is too expensive to raise given the added possibility of a monster behind us. A late position bet of less than pot I am 35/65 pot sized raise or fold. If we make this raise I don’t see how there can be a turn card unless we are way behind.

As it played out, I like to call and would plan to lead out ¾ pot the turn and fold to a raise, which might be what you were planning to do until the diamond stopped you. This is what I hate about being OOP. You don’t want to be taken off your draw and c/c is an option and certainly would do that some of the time, but consider another play you should make here a certain % of time (only when heads-up):

<font color="red"> With 3400 in the pot, bet 4K here. True, if he has a set he may take you off the draw but that is a calculated risk (remember he is only taking you off a draw that will miss most of the time) and in that case he was probably gonna take you off it if you checked to him. He’s probably not looking down at A9/A8 and taking you off your draw with it if you bet 4K but might if you check. Decent chance he lays down AQ/AJ maybe 89s, as well as JT and any worse ace, and being OOP you are happy to take the pot. If he simply calls, you can’t possibly be ahead but could spike the river and take it down. </font>

As played, his turn bet is very strange but you did say he played “weird”. Not sure what to make of it. I can’t put him on a well-played hand here and a c/r here is very costly and we are getting a great price to see our draw so take it.

I’d have to call the river. If he shows 88, 99, AK, 89, then consider it a loan. Best guess is he shows you Ah with a suited 7, T, or J kicker.
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