Re: JJ capped PF, set but 3 broadways
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I think a turn 3-bet is correct. CO is almost certainly coming along for the ride and we have at least 25% equity even if the straight is made on the turn. You would need to be pretty damn certain he has AT to make a 3-bet incorrect here.
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Lets assume he had AT. He would play basically exactly like this. That gives him 16 possible combos of AT. Please give me any other likely hand he has. And by likely, I mean even a 25% chance of him having. I think we are behind far more often than we are ahead. Also, when we 3-bet and are behind, not only do we get capped, but we sometimes lose our padding CO. Not to mention, if we pair on the river, we can easily pull of a check raise.
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A guy with a PFR of 5 is less likely to be raising AT from UTG than we would be. I think it's very possible he plays AK and even possibly AQ this way too. I agree that if he has AT and we get capped it sucks, but we still have 10 outs on the river. I guess if you put QQ and KK in his range it makes it more marginal. Still, my gut says a 3-bet is marginally +EV.
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