[amoeba]

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you are changing what you are saying again.

obviously JJ is negative ev against AQ when A or Q flops but no J flops.

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Well now we are getting somewhere. So, how much plus EV? don't forget all flop and preflop money is in the pot. So, with our example both players shut down after the flop when they were beat, except the times J hits the turn or river and Ace or queen has flopped (2% of the time). But what about the times no J hits the turn or river if A or Q flops (24% of the time), if AQ is plus EV, how much? Is it enough to offset the previous 40 -15 disadvantage?

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I maintain that in an ideal setting where reraise range of both players and calling of reraise range of both players are Ak-AQ, AA-TT, JJ does not put any more money in once his flop bet has been called with an over on the board unless if a third J appears or some unlikely runner runner situation.

but even if we say that JJ is willing to call a 2nd bet despite all evidence showing that he is behind, then we would have to account for the possibility that holder of AQ bets a 2nd time on a AJXXX or QJXXX board in to JJ holders flopped or turned or rivered set and possibly calling an allin reraise.

After all, AQ holder does not know player 2 holds JJ, remember?

I also suggest moving this to SSNl as we are cluttering up MHNL with this.