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Old 11-18-2005, 02:26 PM
Lloyd Lloyd is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 412
Default Re: Play a Foxwoods hand with me

Well that sure does complicate things a bit. Now we chop against AQ and AJ (and the unlikely Ace holdings we were ahead of). It also makes it less likely that he has 88. I think KK is unlikely the way the hand was played (limping UTG and leading out on an Ace high board versus quite a few players). I think his most likely holdings are AQ-AJ, 99, A9s, AA. All we can really hope for is a split pot here. I think getting just over 2 to 1 odds makes this a very marginally correct call. I'm going back and forth on just leading out or checking and hoping to see a cheap showdown. The problem with checking is that if you had a big hand it's unlikely you'd check-call the entire hand - you'd raise somewhere. So obviously you have a weak Ace or a missed draw. By checking you can almost expect a bet, even if he only has AQ/AJ.

So I think I like betting the river. There's a chance, albeit not a big one, that you can get top pair to lay it down. At the very least you know that if you're raised you're behind and can fold. I'm thinking 1500-2000.
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