[krimson]

I think two points in your analysis are contradictory. You basically hint at the fact that you think the 3-bet means 2-pair or better from villian. For this to be true, he would need to have KK,KT,TT,55,K5,T5. Given pre-flop action, KK is unlikely, unless he missed a LRR, and we later find out 55 is impossible.

KT, TT, K5, T5 are all ahead of us on this river. So given your flop analysis, how is raising the river standard? If you argument is that he checked the turn, I think he may have missed a c/r, or just be a fish doing fishy things.

I don't disagree with the river raise, FWIW, but that's because my view of the flop play is a bit more optimistic.