[applejuicekid]

I know it has been discussed before, but I I'll attempt to try again.

Lets say your equity of a tournament is $26.

If you avoid the coin flip your equity remains the same at $26.

Let us say the your equity of doubling up is x, and busting is 0 plus how much your expected return on the next tournament is.

So for a coinflip to be worth it 26 < (.5)(x) + (.5)(0 + 4)
Or 48 < x.

Meaning doubling up must result in a 48/26 or 1.84 increase in equity. Which is very close to what ICM calculates doubling up to be. In conclusion, I think it is very close and depends what doubling up does for your equity in the tournament.