[tjh]

Every once in while someone posts something like.
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If I take this chance all-in early in the game I either double up or lose. With little time invested this can lead to an increase in my hourly rate.

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Has anyone done the math and analyzed this concept ?

Suppose I do double up. Does ICM assume that I have twice as much chance then at getting in the money ? So my expected ROI has roughly double when I double up. Or I get to take a nap until level 4, or I can fix a sandwich and miss a few hands. Suppose my ROI is 20% and this is a $22 tourney then I just made $4 bucks when I double up.

Is that logic sound ? I am sure you all will correct me if I am wrong.

Now suppose we bust out. Suppose I have 5 minutes invested. It takes 40 minutes to win. So I have wasted 5/40 of a chance to win. I get to start another tourney in wich I make $4.

So half the time I play two tournies and win at most one of them.

The other half I play one tourny and have twice the chance of winning.

If I pass this up and fold my coin flip hand then I play one tourny and have my average chance of winning.

Seems like my hourly rate doubles in one instance, when I double up.

The question I can not sort out at three in the morning is what effect does losing and starting another tourny have. We are basically paying twice for the chance to win only once so that seems like we are cutting our pay rate in half.

So the double up or bust out early argument seems to be a reasonable one. More or less a neutral proposition.

Of course I assume that I am missing something.

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tjh