Re: Bankroll rush. Do you crush low stakes? Excuse my silliness
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OK, then, how confident are you?
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ok. i'll bite.
assume i'm a $12/100 hands player at 1-2 NL. assume my standard deviation there is $100/100 hands. over 10,000 hands the expected value of my win is $1,200. over 10,000 hands my standard deviation would be $1,000. you were asking for my level of "absolute confidence", which i guess mathematically would fall within 2.33 standard deviations from the mean (one-sided). therefore, i'm ABSOLUTELY confident i'd LOSE at most (given the EV and SD assumptions above) $1200 - 2.33*($1000) = $1130 over 10,000 hands.
moral of the story? beware saying 'absolute' to a mathematician.
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