My reasoning
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Interesting. First I thought “hell, raise 5th” but after thinking about seat 8’s range…
The only hand he should be calling with on 3rd is a 3-flush with no over card worth mentioning. So he’s drawing very, very slim on 5th (unless he opted not to raise with a jack-high 3-flush, but I think he should, right?). Also, there’s no way he can call two cold with just jacks, but he’ll probably call one bet hoping to suck out on AA or KK.
On 6th you have a clear raise, however (and a fold if seat 1 3-bets; yeah, I did read the white writing, couldn’t resist [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ). Seat 8 has to call with his flush draw, so make him pay.
And I guess you should raise if seat 8 rags off, too. He can’t very well call with just jacks once seat 1 makes the open pair.
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Yeah, you pretty much hit it on the head...I think the yeah here is realizing that it is highly unlikely that the 8 seat has more than a bust draw and open Js on 5th. With any pair (except for maybe 2s, 3s, or less likely As or Ks) he most likely would have raised 3rd or 4th when playing 3 handed. Thus it is incorrect for him to even call one bet on 5th, whereas if I raise he will make a correct laydown.
On 6th I definitely should have raised, because now it looks like the 8 seat has hit a flush draw, so I need to charge him the max to draw out (he would be correct to fold to my raise with worse than a Q high flush draw because it looks like I might have hit a flush). The only danger with raising 6th is that I could be shoting myself in the foot if the open 5s has filled up. Luckily, that is unlikely because I have many of his pair cards, but in order to make this raise I need to have the strength to fold to a 3 bet since only a maniac would 3 bet what looks like a made flush (by someone who cold called 2 bets on 5th) with out a boat.
You are right about raising 6th even if the 8 seat rags off, because the 8 seat can't call the open pair. But what if the 8 the 3rd guy didn't get open 5s and the 8 seat rags off...should I raise?
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