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Old 11-17-2005, 06:12 PM
LearnedfromTV LearnedfromTV is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Van down by the river
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Default Re: Bottom set and weak openended against shortstacks

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I totally disagree with Joe. Stuff it in. You very likely have BB beat, so your equity in the sidepot will finance a decent portion of your investment in the main pot. If CO has KK, so be it, but you are most likely ahead here with a set against these short stacks who basically committed preflop. And you have a draw to the nuts and all kinds of possibilities for making the best non-nut hand.

I crack people all the time with bottom set, for much bigger pots than this. I think bottom set is highly underrated.

I would have folded to the raise preflop though, cause you realy don't have the implied odds you need to call that raise with a hand like this. You are not going to flop a worthwhile hand very often, so you need to have the potential to stack someone big time when you hit to make it worthwhile.

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I agree.

Knowing you are a favorite over the BB is huge here because he is committed to calling and building a sidepot with you. Thinking just about the main pot, there is 125 in there now, 33 to call, so you need 21% equity to profit from a call from the main pot, if MP2 folds.

With 5 outs to the nuts (albeit hitting the 4 is potentially subject to a ton of redraws) you almost certainly have 21% equity given that you are the only one with a set a reasonable percentage of the time. And because you have > 50% equity against BB's range of hands in a sidepot, you actually need less than 21% if you push, which you should, because:

If BB has top two or QJT or something, you want to get his $24 in now. Against anything but QJT7, 99, or KK, you are a strong favorite and he very rarely just calls with a set on this board. You also want to get MP2 to fold 99 or a weak straight draw.

So push and pray.

Oh. I don't hate the preflop call, but a fold is probably marginally better, given that this scenario is about the best you can hope for and any hand you make, even a flopped straight, is subject to redraws. The main problem is that the other stacks are so small
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