Re: Wait, am I bluffing or value betting?
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My 450 lead was intended for him to have no idea where I was at. The plan was to evaluate his timing and action and go from there. After my 450 lead I wouldn't expect him to immediately know what he wanted to do unless he had a real hand (in other words, if he had something marginal or air he'd think about it more), so the timing told me that I was probably beat.
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FWIW, I am not so sure I like your logic right here. At a $20+2 or lower buy-in, I agree with your assessment. But I think at a $50+5 and higher buy-in, a number of your opponents will be able to make moves such as post-flop re-steals on an opponent that they see as playing a little wild. He may have decided pre-flop that he wants to play a pot with you HU with position - and so his big raise on the flop might be a muscle move with air, medium PP, or overcards that was pre-meditated. Just pointing out that I wouldn't automatically assume that his timing is indicating a strong hand here.
ts-
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