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Old 11-17-2005, 01:33 PM
milesdyson milesdyson is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 197
Default Re: Raise this turn?

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I think I just call on the turn. While your equity is ok, I think that you make more by just flat calling as you are more likely to bet bet into on the river when you make your hand, allowing you to raise.

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let's assume that we have a generous 40% equity on the turn.
also assume that if we raise, they both check call the river (and we assume our made hand is good 100% of the time).

40% of the time we win their 2 extra bets they put in after we raise, 60% of the time we lose our 2, and 40% of the time we will win 2 more on the river:
0.4(2) - 0.6(2) + 0.4(2) = 0.4

now look at just calling. let's only assume that we'll get 2 bets from them on the river when we improve. this would happen if bb bets, the other guy folds, we raise, and he calls.

so, 40% of the time we win 2 bets on the river. 60% of the time we lose our turn bet:
0.4(2) - 0.6(1) = 0.2

i think this shows that calling is better, because i feel i've been really nice towards raising the turn (ie. bb never 3-bets, and the middle guy never calls the river if we just call).
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