[smartalecc5]

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what if its capped 3 ways on the turn, are you folding for 1 extra bet cause i think thats right?

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The pot would be laying 17:1, and I think often enough SB has AA [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or KK [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or JJ, thus making your 3 non [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6s good, and your 7s sometimes good. Since that is 5 outs, 90% of the time we lose 1 bet, so we need the 10% of the time to add up to an EV of at least +9 BB. Since the pot will be around 18, we need to win just about 50% of the time when we hit our set or straight for the turn call to be correct.

If SB caps the turn, the way he played it would align with AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ all of clubs. That is 5 combos. He might also have AA or KK with a club, or JJ. That adds up to 9 combos, discounted slightly because he might not play like that, so lets call it 8 combos. But, we also have to factor in that BB could be the one with the flush. This might just barely push us over the edge of winning on the river with our straight or set. Also, the fact that our set doesn't even work against his 3 combos of JJ is bad.

I think this is pretty close if SB caps, or calls, but UTG caps, and it is 1 back to you, but I think TStone is right, and it is probably a fold.

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good analysis.