[Xhad]

Hi LoginNameExists,

One thing I want to add; my OP is assuming that the competitive MTT player is trying to increase his EV in the tournament. My contention is that many "play to survive" players aren't even making it into the money with their strategy.

David Sklansky, TPFAP:

[ QUOTE ]
...many tournament players go too far trying to move up the ladder. They actually lose EV with their strategy that places too much emphasis on surviving in hopes of finishing higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

My real point was that decreasing your chances of a near-future loss, and increasing your chances of winning (or EV in the tournament since they pay multiple places) are not the same thing. If they do happen to be the same thing then defensive play can be correct. Wellwisher, a recurring lifegain card, could be a terror in Magic limited games because it could gain so much life that the player using it couldn't lose. It actually affected the dynamics of the game because it could essentially say "kill me or you can't win." In a poker tournament, if you're near the bubble or in the money and you have a clear, specific reason to believe that playing temporarily weak-tight will increase your EV in the tournament, go for it. But if the tournament pays 200 places, don't play for 500th place.