Re: How bad is variance?
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As far as variance, there's quite a bit, but in NL it should be a lot less. Granted I play a very low variance style, but I haven't had 2 down sessions back to back in over 2 months. That might be variance in itself, but a good NL player should be winning 65-70% of their sessions. And the sessions that you are down should be fairly small. I have a lot of "down" sessions that are down only 5 or 10bb. So if you're having huge swings, I think it's probably more your style of play (maybe a leak) and not just variance.
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Two months is not long enough to draw conclusions about anything. Two years isn't long enough, but a trend should begin appearing by then.
Where do you get the 65-70% of session winning percentage? I think the real number is closer to 53-55%.
My winning percentage by session (per PT) is 49%, however, my PTBB is between 5-6 so my winning sessions more than offset my losing sessions. Having a session where I am down a buy-in or two is not uncommon. Of course, having a session where I up 3 buy-ins is not uncommon either.
I guess my leak is getting my AA cracked 3 or 4 times in a session. Maybe I need to consider folding them to those pre-flop pushes more often [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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