[Huskiez]

So because it seemed we could go in circles ad infinitum, I decided to use Pokerstove, put in some hand ranges, and figure out Hachem’s equity in each situation.

I used the following ranges:

Barch: 66+, A2s+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo
Dannenmann: 55+, A2s+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, A8o+, KJo+

I gave Dannenmann a looser range for two reasons:
1. He is not as tight as Barch
2. He probably wants to knock out another player like many of you are advocating and is hoping Hachem will call and they can check it down.

Part One: Hachem softplays his JJ.

From Pokerstove, E(H) = .459, E(D) = .256, E(B) = .284.

.459 of the time, H has 39.995m chips, D has 16.35m.
.256 of the time, H has 23.045m, D has 33.3m.
.284 of the time, H has 23.045m, D has 16.35m, B has 16.95m.

I used the following model to calculate $EV:
Guaranteed money + (% of chips in play * difference of guaranteed prize from first prize).

For example, if H wins this pot, then
$EV(H) = 4.25m + (39.995/56.345 * 3.25m) = 6.56m.

If B wins this pot, then
$EV(H) = 2.5m + (23.045/56.345 * 5m) = 4.54m.

If D wins the pot, then
$EV(H) = 4.25m + (23.045/56.345 * 3.25m) = 5.58m.

Then overall, when Hachem decides to softplay,
$EV(H) = .459 * 6.56m + .284 * 4.54m + .256 * 5.58m = 5.729m.

OK, one part done.

Part 2: Hachem plays aggressively

Now let’s assume Hachem reraises all in. For Dannenmann to call, he will need a premium hand. Let’s say he would call with the following hands: AA, KK, QQ, and AK.

For the hand range given, he will have
QQ+, AK 34 ways (6*3 + 16)
55-JJ, A2s+ (-AKs), KTs+, QJs, JTs, A8o+ (-AKo), KJo+ 185 ways (6*6 + 1 + 4*16 + 12*7)

Or a premium hand 34/219 times, or 15.5% of the time.

First, let’s look at when he does not have one of those hands and folds. Then Hachem is heads up against Barch. In this case, E(H) = .612, E(B) = .389.

.612 of the time, H has 39.995m chips, D has 16.35m.
.389 of the time, H has 23.045m, D has 16.35m, B has 16.95m.

$EV(H) = 5.781m.

Now what about when Dannenmann does have a premium hand?

For the main pot, E(H) = .306, E(D) = .479, E(B) = .215.
For the side pot, E(H) = .362, E(D) = .638.

.479 of the time, H has 6.695m chips, D has 49.65m.
.306 of the time, H has 56.345m.
.078 of the time (when Barch wins, and Hachem wins the side pot), H has 39.395m, B has 16.95m.
.137 of the time (when Barch wins, and Dannenmann wins the side pot), H has 6.695m, D has 32.7m, B has 16.95m.

$EV(H) = 5.453m.

So then overall, when Hachem decides to play aggressively preflop,
$EV(H) = .845 * 5.781m + .155 * 5.453m = 5.729m.

In other words, this is way too close to call.

I will admit that I was very surprised when the $EV for playing aggressively wasn’t definitively higher.

Keep in mind I am a cash game player, so I don’t really know whether the $EV model I used was the best.

Any thoughts or reactions to my calculations would be appreciated. But please try to minimize the number of “Dude, Dannenmann is NOT calling A2s there. He’s not an idiot.” I guess the most controversial point will be whether he calls AK and QQ. He called an all in against Black with AK earlier, but I realize that wasn’t a dry side pot. I also realize that Barch isn't going to push A6s there every time. But keep in mind that he may not push AA there every time and instead try to win a big pot by trapping or by raising less than all in preflop.

Of course, this doesn't put any light on the postflop play, but that's for another day.