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Old 11-16-2005, 04:51 PM
James282 James282 is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 699
Default Re: So I just lost 30K......

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's pretty ridiculous how so many of the 'big name' players on 2+2 advocate taking shots, but then when someone posts about a shot gone wrong, everyone scolds him for not playing within his bankroll. Sure the OP may be a little arrogant in his post and doesn't know how long the actual long run is, but it sounds like he does know how to play a decent game.

whatever, i gotta go to class.

-DrG

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Most of the people who scold others for taking shots will play more hundreds of thousands of hands at 3/6 or below before ever settling in at a higher limit, all the while bitching to eachother about the horrible play at higher limits and how they could crush those limits if they just had the bankroll. They don't understand the idea of calculated risk, but they are not nearly as bad as the other end of the spectrum.

That said, the OP isn't describing the behavior of one "taking a shot." The dude dumped 4/5 of his bankroll. This is not responsible shot taking and shows a fundamental lack of understanding of variance. He believes he has proven that he has an edge in a game in which he has lost money overall. Taking shots is one thing, but hopelessly spraying chips hoping for positive variance is blackjack. It doesn't matter what order the money comes and goes, it only matters how much is left at the end of the day.
-James
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