[J.A.Sucker]

Hi Josh,

You know how I feel about all of these things, and I don't want to write too much about it, but I will make a few points about the most important things that you discuss.

1. Poker changes. Games always get smaller and tougher with time, because the live ones go broke and only the stronger players are left. The rake continues to go up proportionally to the stakes because of increased operating expenses and greed, hurting you further as a winning player. Inflation kills you too.

2. High limit games are supposed to be tough. That's just the way it works. You're playing for a lot of money, and losers can't afford to lose for very long. Even a very rich man can't afford to be a loser at 100-200 for very long. Let's take a guy who's a small loser and plays 3 nights a week. He loses 1K a night (which is typical for most losers) - remember that the time & tips for this game is about 30 bucks an hour since he probably tips a bit more than he should, or 150 bucks a night. Now he only has to lose 850 a night to get to 1K. Easy to do. In a year, he loses 150K, post-tax dollars. Not many people can afford to lose 250K of earned dollars before things happen. Our fish begins to sell his investments and his wife finds out. No more college fund for little Timmy - whatever. It's a LOT of money. Most people don't realize how much money is at stake in a game of this size. Even 40-80 is more than the vast majority of losers can afford.

3. Ego kills. That's what makes poker so great, but also so dangerous. Lots of players think they're the best, but only a few are. Playing bigger and bigger is usually a recipe for disaster, for lots of reasons.

4. Winning at the highest levels isn't about playing poker by rote. Big cards get the money in good games, but in tough games, you have to be creative and play lots of poker, because nobody makes big mistakes preflop. Hand reading is so important, and it becomes much tougher as you play bigger. Your opponents know this too, and play really tricky. Pretty soon your judgement gets completly messed up and you don't know where you are. As snakehead says, the games are a total "mind f*ck." He's right.

5. The bots will kill online poker. Maybe they are already. Think about it: a lot of players are playing pokertracker poker - VPIP stats, etc. They are winning lots of money this way. I've been told that some players are "killing the games for more than I ever could" by taking statistical measures at various points in the hand (turn raises for example) to make the right decision more often. With huge databases being available, how is this type of play better done by a computer? That's why bots could do this, especially against weaker players. Good players may be immune for longer, since they make plays based on lots of factors, including their particular opponent at that particular time, so they don't have a static strategy. However, given time and enough information, the bots will beat or break even against those players too, I'm sure. Breaking even breaks you because of the rake.

The bottom line is that one should make hay while the sun shines, and the weather is definately good this winter. If you can't do this, the above will kill any hope anyone has of being a long-time poker pro. I guess I did end up writing too much, but whatever.