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Old 11-15-2005, 11:52 PM
raptor517 raptor517 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 7
Default Re: (109) Bubble Fun with Raptor

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i dont think its as much of a leak as you presume. button shoves, i fold, bb is looking at 1395 in the pot and needs to call 645, and is thus getting 2.16 to 1. not exactly terrible odds since he no longer has any FE whatsoever. in all honesty, even calling with 23o isnt a very large leak at all.. holla

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Ugh, calling with 32o here is absolutely, 100% HORRIBLE. Chip EV, schmip EV, $EV-wise it's not close. Even if button hasn't looked at his cards, you're 33% here, more likely you're 30% to win the hand. If you (as the BB) fold, you're not as far behind the other short stack as you might think, as he's in the BB before you. You have enough chips where you can likely avoid a 3-way all-in if you do get a hand you like in the next couple, you have a shot at pushing on the short stack's BB if you like your UTG hand, and can always wait til your next BB to make a stand (are are going to better way better off %-wise to win on average than making a stand here (and winning, while giving you fewer chips than if you make a stand here, should give you some FE)).

Of the ~ 30% of the time you win, you still get 4th a % of the time. So...by calling with your 32o, you finsih 4th over 75% of the time. Your 1sts and 2nds do go up a bit, but not by that much, as you're still only in about a tie for 2nd, and you have shat for relative position on the (continuing) bubble (meaning the times you do suck out with your 32o, you'll often proceed to get chipped back down to shat).

Something like T8s or K4o against an aggressive-pushbot button, that's a completely different story (if you're like 45% to win or so). 32o or total shat hand, calling in the BB here is awful, and a major leak if you're doing it.

IMO/IME, of course.

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gramps dont get me wrong i fold 23o here, lol. however, for the standard crap player is not a terribly -ev play to call any 2 here. and again let me restate, i dont condone calling with 23o here, im just saying how the math of it doesnt work out as horrible as it would appear.. holla
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