Theoretical tournament risk rating
for a given tournament, take all the hands in which you were covered all in (ie all the hands you would go out if you lost) and multiply all their EVs(from 0 to 1) together. call this RR = risk rating. your average RR over many tournaments would represent the maximum percent of tournaments you can expect to win with your current playing style
you could also do this for different periods in the tournament (4-10 players, 3 players, ...) and come up with your maximum percent to place 3rd, 2nd, 1st
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