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Old 11-15-2005, 09:58 PM
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Default Question for Raising on the River

Had an interesting SSNL hand early in a $10 buy-in, one table online satellite the other day which made me think about my River strategy with a strong hand that is not the nuts out against possible draws.

Hero is on the button with $2400. Villain is BB with $1700 and is observed to chase draws as well as bluff against big pots. Blinds are $15/$30.

Pre-flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Foled to Hero, Hero raises 3x BB, Villain calls

Flop: ($195) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain checks, Hero bets $100, Villain calls.

Turn: ($395) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain checks, Hero bets $200, Villain calls.

River: ($795) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villain checks, Hero bets $200, Villain folds.

Obviously I won the hand, which is good, but I'm wondering if my River bet was a flawed play. Sklansky argues in Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players that you shouldn't bet the River unless you feel a better than 55% chance you hold the best hand... in Theory of Poker he goes a bit further and says you shouldn't bet on the River if you feel a hand that calls has you beat...

Does this advice apply to SSNL Hold'em? The A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the river completes many straight and flush draws... if I got check raised I'd almost have to call (given that he's a bluffer) but don't exactly like my odds... can anyone out there help me analyze my play in this hand? In retrospect it looks like the guy was on a spade draw, but I'm not sure I had any way to tell at the time.

Thanks,

Hungry J0e
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