Re: OK......37%
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But this is still a joke. That's like saying "well, your chance of hitting a 3 pointer is 30%, your chance of hitting a 2 is 50%, so it's more +EV to shoot 2 pointers. Therefore, you should never shoot a 3 unless you're down 3 with 1 second left in the game."
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In football, there are times when it is correct to go for two points. My point is unless your team has a better than 50% sucess rate it is -EV.
Your basketball analogy does not hold water because basketball is about good shot selection. A basketball player that has a good 3-point shot may have a 40% sucess rate when they are wide open and perhaps a 20% success rate when the other team has him well covered.
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By illustrating the fallacy with that basketball example, you made my point for me.
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