Re: OK......37%
Also, the EV equations given are wrong. In reality, the value we're looking for is "more" than 2.
Take your first example, a good one, where we trail 17-8. We can't just use 2 and 1 as values in an EV equation because scoring 2--which only puts us down one possession--is far more valuable than scoring 1. The values of scoring the two point conversion and scoring a field goal are really worth much different values in the contexts of the score.
If this is unconvincing, consider it this way: the fallacy with only using 1 and 2 is that if your example had been 17-6, rather than 17-8, the values of kicking a field goal vs going for 2 would be worth the same, when they clearly are not. A coach would be an idiot to go for 2 in the first example, and much less of an idiot to go for 2 in the second. Saying the values are equal is saying that he's equally an idiot in both.
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