Re: No, No, and No.
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This is ridiculous. There are tons of variables (momentum, defensive fatigue, offensive line skill, running back power, fullback power, etc.), that it's insane to just throw a blanket 34% chance of success down here.
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OK...37% (this is for an average team)
A team that is EXCEPTIONALLY skilled at 2-point conversions might have a 44% success rate. It is still -EV.
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what? do you think the chance of success on a 1-point play is 100%? is it over 90%?
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