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Old 11-15-2005, 04:41 PM
Felix_Nietsche Felix_Nietsche is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 208
Default No, No, and No.

Going for two is -EV. There is a 34% chance of success. To go for two to make sense, you have to ASSUME the other team won't score anymore points. In the 3rd question, there is 13 minutes left in the game which is a LOT OF TIME. Since the score is 41-36, you can't think your defense which has already allowed 41 points will shut the other team out the rest of the way.

Consider these scenarios:
Scenario #1 (successful two point conversion)
41-38 then
44-38 (now a touchdown + a kick will put you in the lead)

Scenario #2 (2 point try fails)
41-36
44-36 (now you need a touchdown + 2 point play just to tie)

Scenario #3 (1 point try, sucess)
41-37
44-37 (A touchdown + Kick will tie.)

Going for something with a 34% success rate is not good.
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