[flair1239]

[ QUOTE ]
And regardless of the results I still disagree with him.

I open raise red JJ UTG+1. An LPP cold calls in MP1 and a player with TAGggish 17/9 stats after 100 hands 3-bets from the SB. A LAG BB calls two and I cap. Everyone calls.

Flop: (16 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB bets, BB folds, I raise, MP1 folds, SB 3-bets, I call.

Turn: (11 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB bets, I raise, SB calls.

River: (15 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB checks, I

[/ QUOTE ]

AK 12 combos
AA 6 combos
KK 3 combos
QQ 3 combos
TT 6 combos

Now we start discounting:

QQ seems less likely because I would expect a turn 3-bet.

AA is tough.. because I would also expect a turn 3-bet, although if he is the type to think scary thoughts..I could see him going passive.

Kind of the same thing with KK although his going passive would be a little more explainable due to your PF cap.

AK seems a little goofy but not altogether out of the picture, except for the fact he would have kind of overplayed it... I can't really see a normal player trying to run a capper off of a Jack high flop.

So basically the two finalists are AA and KK. HE seems to have played it a little more like KK. But I am kind of bothered by limiting him to those two hands. As there are some outside possbilites of hands that he may have played in a simaliar fashion.

This is where I really whip out the HUD and am looking at things like Flop aggression, turn aggression stuff like that.

I will say this I will not bet/fold this hand. Just looking at the board his payoff (besides AA and AK) hands would be KQ, KJ, QJ (which he also probably would have three-bet the turn), maybe AQ. Thing is of those hands only KJs makes any sense the whole way through and also is not very likely considering your holding.

The thing is that if you take only the AA or AK combos and discount them heavily based upon his play. You still have about a 50/50 shot. Factoring in the possbility of a weekly played QQ (which he may now not checkraise) and the kind of unlikely suited hands he might have raised PF (KQs...etc). I think you have a very thin and unenjoyable Bet/call.

Interesting hand.. will give something to work on tonight.

BTW, I like steam rolling these hands... If he has AA or KK he may not slowdown on the turn anyway (If you cap the flop) so you get to cap and are more likely to get your 2-bets on the turn.